Modelling Public Opinion Polling Data

In the lead up to the 2015 General election, we undertook a series of projects supporting an opinion polling company and its clients as an extended team member and modelling specialist. Topics covered perceptions of party leaders, the NHS, The EU, Scottish Independence, Electoral Reform and specific policy areas such as Immigration, the economy and HS2. We also produced analysis for a series of published reports on the current state of each of the main political parties, whilst investigating what coalition of voters these parties need to appeal to, to maximise their number of seats at the election.
Our full tool kit was utilised throughout these jobs including:

    Key driver’s analysis:

    What is it that makes voters support particular party leaders? What makes certain demographic groups support particular parties? Which particular messages would drive someone to vote yes/no in a referendum?

    Segmentation:

    How do the public differ with regards to their attitudes towards and relationship with these political issues? How should the main parties be communicating with these groups? How are these issues related to party affiliation on other issues? What are the key “winnable” groups for the main parties and how do they need to position themselves to these groups to win votes?

    Decision Tree Analysis:

    What combination of demographic and profiling information on voters determines whether they remain loyal to a party, defect to other parties, would consider voting for other parties? What demographic combinations define groups who would never consider voting for a particular party?

    Choice modelling:

    What are the trade-offs between a large list of potential issues affecting voters in particular regions of the country? How does the hierarchy of issues vary across different subgroups?

    Data Reduction:

    Utilising Principal Components Analysis and Latent Class Factor Analysis to develop and understand the underlying dimensions common to a broad array of attitudinal and behavioural variables.

The analysis we provided was incorporated into a number of published reports on the state-of-the-parties over the last parliament. A large proportion was also used by political parties and campaigns to develop strategies for targeting swing voters.

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